The hottest machinery manufacturing continues to r

2022-08-15
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Machinery manufacturing: continue to rebound with limited space to be verified by fundamentals

Machinery Manufacturing: continue to rebound with limited space to be verified by fundamentals

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the construction machinery sector rebounded strongly in December, outperforming the market. After six consecutive months of weakness, the construction machinery sector index outperformed the market in December. As of December 26, the construction machinery sector rose 22% in the month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 13.1% in the same period, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose 14.9%

the construction machinery sector rebounded strongly in December, outperforming the market. After six consecutive months of weakness, the construction machinery sector index outperformed the market in December. As of December 26, the construction machinery sector rose 22% in the month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 13.1% in the same period, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index rose 14.9%

railway and highway construction continued to improve, and the moderate rebound trend of new real estate construction was confirmed. After 15 months of decline, the railway fixed asset investment returned to positive growth, the growth rate of road investment continued to expand, and the investment in public facilities management continued to rebound. The growth rate of investment in electric heating, gas and water production and supply industry has narrowed, and the growth rate of mine investment has narrowed for six consecutive months. The sales area of commercial housing resumed growth, the year-on-year decline of land acquisition area began to shrink, the year-on-year decline of new construction area narrowed for three consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth of real estate development investment began to expand. We believe that the rebound trend of real estate investment has been confirmed

the sales of small excavators and bulldozers, which are highly related to infrastructure investment, have improved, while other industries have not improved. In November, the sales volume of small excavators decreased by 16%, accounting for 46% of the sales volume of excavators, while the sales volume of large excavators decreased by 52.6%, accounting for 8.5% of the sales volume of excavators that produce multi piece components (including hardware) from molds, and the sales volume of medium excavators was relatively stable. In November, excavator sales fell 25% year-on-year, with a month on month increase of 12%. From January to November, the cumulative decline was 35.3%, and the decline was not significantly narrowed. In November, the sales volume of bulldozers changed from negative to positive year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a cumulative decline of 22% from January to November, the smallest decline among the five sub industries. This method greatly simplifies the operation process of verification. The sales of loaders, truck cranes and rollers have not improved. The sales volume in November fell by 34%, 22.4% and 34.3% year-on-year respectively, and the cumulative decline from January to November was 28.3%, 36.5% and 40.6% respectively

downstream intentional investment began to increase, and the future trend is good. Infrastructure investment has recovered in an all-round way, and the bottom of real estate investment has rebounded. However, due to the disturbance of factors such as industrial volume, inventory and accounts receivable, the sales of construction machinery are relatively slow to reflect the downstream demand. It is expected that the sales will still be at the bottom until the Spring Festival. At present, the investment recovery cycle of construction machinery and equipment is lengthened. At the same time, the economic benefits of equipment investment from 2011 to 2012 are declining, and the investment confidence of downstream customers is insufficient. It still takes time to restore investment confidence. However, with the bottom of downstream investment picking up, intentional investment has begun to increase, and the future trend is good. It is expected that the traditional peak season of sales will improve after the Spring Festival next year

maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry. The rise of the sector this month was mainly driven by the repair of valuation caused by the expected improvement of materials such as titanium alloy, quick brittle, high and gold. The fundamentals can be measured according to any preset mode, and the control improvement is quite weak, maintaining the "neutral" rating of the industry for the time being. From now to the Spring Festival, it is the off-season for the sales and commencement of construction machinery. The market has full expectations for the sales data. At the same time, the performance of listed companies is in a blank window period. For the improvement of sales in the peak season of March and April next year, as well as the expectation of reform dividends, the support plate will be maintained in the current position. The degree of demand improvement and the extent of performance improvement will restrict the height of the rebound, and there is not much room for further strong growth in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to companies with greater flexibility, such as Sany, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shantui and Hengli oil cylinders

risk tip: the recovery of investment is lower than expected

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